Nuclear Deal

by G. R. Workman

     On April 5th, the President explained to Tom Friedman of the New York Times that, “I’ve been very clear that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon on my watch.”

     Notice the word play – “on my watch.”  In the days that followed, the President admitted that Iran could race to the bomb with nearly no “break out” time once the deal would terminate in 13 to 15 years.  Yet, “it would not be on Obama’s watch” since he would not then be president.  In the meantime, this deal would not abolish the ability for Iran to still build the bomb – especially if they cheat on the deal.   Iran would be left with at least 5000 centrifuges.  Does that negate the ability for Iran to build a bomb?  Of course not since it is a fact that “Pakistan enriched uranium for its first nuclear device with only 3,000 centrifuges.”  Would Iran cheat?  How many secret facilities have they built and operated over the last decade?

     Probably the scariest aspects of this proposed deal are the ambiguities between the President’s statements and the Iranian Leadership’s statements regarding its details. 

President Obama states that:

1. This is a deal that is based on verification.   The President said, “If we see something suspicious, we will inspect it.  So this deal is not based on trust, it’s based on unprecedented verification.”  Obama adamantly states that, “If Iran cheats, the world will know it.” 

(Notice the word play in these statements.  Are the inspections regular and mandatory?  Do we only inspect if we “suspect” something?  If so, then the Iranians could be telling the truth.  Are we as US citizens, as well as the rest of the world, being played?  Could our administration truly believe that we are that naïve?)

2. Sanctions would be lifted gradually after the deal has been signed. 

Iranian Leaders state that:

Iran will not allow any online cameras in its nuclear sites  

Iran’s nuclear chief and foreign minister told parliament that they will start using its latest IR-8 centrifuges just as soon as the nuclear deal goes into effect. 

On Thursday, Iran’s Supreme Leader demands that all economic sanctions must be lifted at the same time that a final agreement is concluded.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is now accusing the White House of lying regarding the details of the initial agreement and that the Obama Administration is being deceptive.

     So, who is lying – Obama or the Iranian Leadership?  It is hard to put your trust in anyone that has a history of lying.  Since Iran knows that Obama, for political purposes and his legacy, needs to secure a deal, any deal, they are in a win, win situation.  Whether or not a deal gets signed - Iran wins.   

     Without the deal or merely delaying it, they can continue to enrich to their heart's content.  So why not lie, thereby infuriating the US leadership, possibly causing a further continuance of the negotiations even past a mid summer deadline?  

     With the deal, who knows if Iran will secure a bomb during the lifetime of the agreement because it totally depends upon whose version of the deal is ultimately struck into existence.  Either way, it is a fact, and confirmed by even our own President that Iran will get the bomb eventually by legal means if they wait long enough for the agreement to expire.

© 2015 G. R. Workman  

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